WS #12985

The data window shows a market dominated by escalating US-Iran tensions, with oil prices spiking on Trump's comments about Iran strikes and the US issuing new sanctions against eight tankers and 10 entities. The EIA reported a larger-than-expected crude inventory draw of 7.167M barrels vs a 700K build estimate, further supporting oil. The Nasdaq-100 has entered correction territory as the chip selloff deepens, with SK Hynix and Samsung down 46% and 35% respectively over the last month, and concerns about AI spending sustainability spreading to US names like Micron and Intel. The FOMC decision is imminent, with Polymarket bets heavily favoring no change but Citadel predicting a 25bp hike. Key earnings beats include Ford (up 7.4%), ADP, and Generac (strong EPS beat, data-center backlog $1.6B). Meta earnings are due after the close. A notable counter-signal: the WFA and X have settled the GARM litigation, removing a legal overhang for X/advertisers. The US-Iran conflict remains escalated with no de-escalation signals, but the new sanctions are a continuation rather than a new escalation.