WS #12986

The data window shows an escalation in US-Iran tensions with oil prices surging after Iranian strikes on US assets in Jordan and Trump's vow to respond 'hard'. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, pro-wire, jetstream.bsky). The EIA reported a massive crude draw of 7.167M barrels vs a 700K build estimate, further supporting oil. The Nasdaq-100 has entered correction territory as the chip selloff deepens, with UMC raising capex on AI demand but SMCI falling on AI chip probe. Fiverr tumbled 21.6% on AI-driven demand headwinds, a counter-signal to the AI capex narrative. The FOMC decision is imminent with Polymarket bets heavily favoring no change. Key earnings beats include Ford (up 7.4%), ADP, and Cheesecake Factory. Meta earnings are due after the close. A notable counter-signal: the WFA and X have settled the GARM litigation, removing a legal overhang for X/advertisers. The US-Iran conflict remains escalated with no de-escalation signals, but the new sanctions are a continuation rather than a new escalation.