WS #12987

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of US-Iran tensions, with oil prices surging 7% after Iranian strikes on US assets and Trump's vow to respond 'hard'. This is corroborated by multiple sources (oilprice.com, pro-wire, Al Jazeera). The EIA reported a massive crude draw of 7.167M barrels vs a 700K build estimate, further supporting oil. The FOMC decision is imminent with Polymarket bets heavily favoring no change. Key earnings beats include Ford (up 7.4%), Cheesecake Factory, and PayPal. Fiverr tumbled 21.6% on AI-driven demand headwinds, a counter-signal to the AI capex narrative. TSMC raised long-term revenue CAGR to 25% through 2029, a bullish signal for semiconductors. South Korea's Finance Ministry will restrict leveraged ETF trading to stabilize the market after SK Hynix earnings sank KOSPI. A notable counter-signal: the US-Iran conflict remains escalated with no de-escalation signals, but Polymarket shows bets on a ceasefire by July 31. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for oil/geopolitics, with the FOMC decision as a key near-term catalyst.