WS #13018
The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with US and Saudi airstrikes targeting Iran-backed PMF bases in Iraq, confirmed by Al Jazeera, NYT, and multiple Bluesky sources. This marks a significant escalation in the regional war, directly threatening oil supply routes and driving energy prices higher. The Fed's hawkish hold and dissenting votes for a rate hike, combined with Warsh's silence on forward guidance, have fueled a broad market selloff (Dow -2.2%, S&P -1.5%, Nasdaq -1.7%) and a Treasury selloff. Tech earnings are diverging sharply: Microsoft crushed Q4 estimates with Azure revenue surpassing $100B and commercial RPO doubling to $678B, while Meta beat revenue but missed EPS badly as free cash flow collapsed to $784M on massive AI capex, with Reality Labs losses continuing. Robinhood posted record revenue but crypto revenue fell 38% YoY. The market is pricing in no rate cuts in 2026, and Polymarket bets on a US-Iran ceasefire by July 31 remain low. The US stock market lost over $1 trillion in value today.
Topics
Key developments
- US and Saudi airstrikes target Iran-backed PMF bases in Iraq, escalating regional conflict
- Fed holds rates with three dissents favoring hike; Warsh's silence fuels Treasury selloff
- Microsoft Q4 earnings beat: Azure revenue surpasses $100B, commercial RPO doubles to $678B
- Meta Q2 revenue beat but EPS miss as FCF plunges to $784M on heavy AI capex
- Robinhood record revenue but crypto revenue falls 38% YoY; stock slides 4% after hours