WS #13055

The dominant signal in this window is the release of US June PCE data, which came in slightly softer than expected on a month-over-month basis (headline PCE +0.1% M/M vs est. -0.1%, core PCE +0.1% M/M vs est. +0.2%), while jobless claims fell to 197,000 (below consensus 200,000). This mixed inflation-labor data supports a 'soft landing' narrative but does not materially shift Fed rate expectations. Separately, a major hedge fund liquidation is underway: Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund is unwinding trades after steep losses on AI infrastructure longs (SK Hynix) and short software bets, with prime brokers (BAC, JPM, GS) marketing holdings for sale. This creates overhang on AI/semi names. Microsoft surged ~15% at the open after earnings, driving a trading halt in the MSFT 2x leveraged ETF. Meta is under pressure after hours with Wedbush cutting its price target to $595, citing AI capex concerns. On the geopolitical front, a Russian missile crossed into Poland overnight, and Ukraine's drone campaign has knocked out >30% of Russia's refining capacity, per FT. BP announced 700 job cuts citing oil oversupply. The chip sector selloff continues with $1 trillion in losses since last Friday, and aggressive put buying in TSLA ($327M premium), MU ($1.3B premium), and GS ($83M premium) signals bearish positioning.