WS #13056

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation of a major hedge fund liquidation: Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund is unwinding trades after steep losses on AI infrastructure longs (SK Hynix) and short software bets, with prime brokers (BAC, JPM, GS) marketing holdings for sale. This creates overhang on AI/semi names. Separately, US Q2 GDP grew at a weaker-than-expected 1.5% (vs est. 2.1%), while June PCE data came in mixed (headline +0.1% M/M vs est. -0.1%, core +0.1% M/M vs est. +0.2%) and jobless claims fell to 197,000 (below consensus 200,000). This mixed data supports a 'soft landing' narrative but does not materially shift Fed rate expectations. On the geopolitical front, Iran's IRGC claims to have struck a US airbase in Jordan, destroying three F-35s, though this is unverified. Oil loadings from the Persian Gulf remain subdued due to attacks deterring shipowners from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. BP announced 700 job cuts citing oil oversupply. The chip sector selloff continues with $1 trillion in losses since last Friday. Microsoft surged ~15% after earnings, driving a trading halt in the MSFT 2x leveraged ETF. Meta is under pressure with Wedbush cutting its price target to $595, citing AI capex concerns. The US dollar index saw its biggest 2-day drop since Liberation Day. Japan may have intervened in FX markets as the yen surged. The EU is investigating Chinese glass fibre mesh imports via the Balkans and Moldova. Europe wildfires threaten insured losses. The KOSPI crashed 44% from highs, down 22% in two days. JPMorgan says fading Clarity Act odds weigh on crypto outlook. Institutional crypto trading hit a record 72% of volumes. The dominant theme is ESCALATING: the Aschenbrenner liquidation and chip selloff are intensifying, while geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Europe add to uncertainty.