WS #13057

The dominant signal in this window is the release of US June PCE data, which came in mixed: headline PCE +0.1% M/M (vs est. -0.1%), core PCE +0.1% M/M (vs est. +0.2%), with both year-over-year readings in line. This supports a 'soft landing' narrative but does not materially shift Fed rate expectations. Separately, US Q2 GDP grew at a weaker-than-expected 1.5% (vs est. 2.1%), reinforcing the mixed macro picture. The KOSPI continues its crash, down 44% from highs and 22% in the past two days, signaling severe stress in Korean markets. Oil loadings from the Persian Gulf remain subdued due to attacks deterring shipowners from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Brent crude spiked 7.8% to $90.63 after President Trump threatened Iran. Shell reported a near-record profit of $9.8bn, maintaining its buyback program. The chip sector selloff continues with $1 trillion in losses since last Friday. Microsoft surged ~15% after earnings, with a $3.2B Anthropic gain topping an entire business segment. Meta is under pressure, retreating to $540, with MarketWatch noting Wall Street's doghouse status due to AI spending concerns. The US dollar index saw its biggest 2-day drop since Liberation Day. Japan may have intervened in FX markets as the yen surged. JPMorgan says fading Clarity Act odds weigh on crypto outlook. Institutional crypto trading hit a record 72% of volumes. The Aschenbrenner fund liquidation overhang persists, with the fund now asking for more money while its last filing showed 62% bets against chip stocks. Europe wildfires threaten insured losses. The EU is investigating Chinese glass fibre mesh imports via the Balkans. The dominant theme is STABLE: the macro data is mixed but not decisively shifting policy expectations, while geopolitical risks and the chip selloff remain elevated.