WS #13063

The dominant narrative this window is the escalation of the Iran conflict and its ripple effects. The US has resumed bombing Iran (Phase II, Day 19), with smoke rising over Ahvaz and a family killed on Qeshm Island. Houthi rebels have launched attacks on Saudi oil facilities from Iraq, and Saudi airstrikes hit Sanaa. This escalation is driving oil supply fears, with Russia extending its diesel export ban through January 2027, limiting global supply. The yen surged 3% on intervention speculation, and JPMorgan now expects a Fed rate hike in December. Countering the bearish macro, Microsoft's Q4 results (Azure revenue up 43%, crossed $100B annual run rate) have sparked a 14% rally, easing AI spending concerns and lifting the tech sector. However, Meta faces headwinds with analyst price target cuts and bearish technicals. The Aschenbrenner fund liquidation overhang is fading, with NBIS ripping higher. The Clarity Act for crypto appears dead, weighing on crypto sentiment. Overall, the market is caught between geopolitical escalation (bearish for equities, bullish for oil) and strong tech earnings (bullish for AI-related names).