WS #13064

The dominant narrative this window is the massive tech rally driven by Microsoft's Q4 earnings beat (Azure revenue up 41%, crossed $100B annual run rate) and Lam Research's 20% surge, which has sparked a broad chip stock rebound. Memory stocks Micron and Sandisk jumped 13% and 21% respectively after Samsung warned of a memory crunch into 2028. This counters the previous AI spending concern narrative. However, Meta's Q2 earnings missed estimates (EPS $6.18 vs $7.40, net income down 14%, free cash flow collapsed 91% to $784M) with expenses surging 55% on AI infrastructure, causing a plunge. This creates a MAG7 divergence: MSFT and LRCX bullish, META bearish. Geopolitically, the Iran conflict continues to escalate with Egypt reportedly attacked by Iran, and Ukrainian drone strikes have disabled 30-45% of Russian oil refining capacity, worsening the fuel crisis. The 30-year yield hovers near 2007 highs above 5.2% as the Fed holds rates steady, with Deutsche Bank expecting two 25bp hikes this year. Crypto sentiment is weighed by JPMorgan warning Clarity Act odds dropping to 37%. The UEFA boycott of FIFA World Cup over private investor plans is a non-market story but adds to geopolitical noise. Overall, the market is caught between a tech-led rally (bullish for AI/semiconductors) and macro headwinds from geopolitical escalation and rising yields (bearish for broad equities).