WS #13065

The dominant narrative this window is the escalating geopolitical crisis: a drone attack on two oil tankers at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal has suspended oil loading operations, while Ukrainian drone strikes have disabled 30-45% of Russian oil refining capacity, triggering Russia's worst fuel crisis since the USSR collapse. Separately, Egypt suffered its first drone attack, widening the Iran conflict and threatening Suez Canal safety. These events are bullish for energy (XOM, CVX, XLE) and bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL) and shipping. Meanwhile, the UEFA boycott of FIFA World Cup over private investor plans is a non-market story but adds to geopolitical noise. On the earnings front, Baxter (BAX) jumped 11% after a beat and raise, while Alnylam (ALNY) plunged 29% on guidance cut. Check Point (CHKP) fell on weak Q2 sales. The 30-year yield hovers near 2007 highs above 5.2% as the Fed holds rates steady, with Deutsche Bank expecting two 25bp hikes this year. Crypto sentiment is weighed by JPMorgan warning Clarity Act odds dropping to 37%. Overall, the market is caught between energy-driven inflation fears and mixed earnings results.