WS #13080
No material new developments in the last 30 minutes. The dominant signals from the previous window (Microsoft vs Meta earnings divergence, US-Iran escalation, Fed hold, Arm beat) remain unchanged with no new data points or counter-signals to report.
Topics
Key developments
- Microsoft's record cloud quarter and $678B backlog validate AI capex returns
- Meta Q2 miss: FCF collapses 91%, AI agent pitch fails, stock drops 9%
- Arm Holdings beat-and-raise: data center royalties double, AGI CPU demand exceeds $2B
- US launches heavy strikes on Iran; Saudi Arabia joins strikes in Iraq; Egypt LNG port hit by drone
- US Patriot missile inventories depleted ~65% amid Iran war, CSIS warns of readiness risk
- Fed holds rates, 3 dissents favor hike; 30-year yields hit 2007 highs; Warsh credibility questioned
- US Q2 GDP slows to 1.5% vs 2.1% expected; AI spending accounts for 2/3 of growth