WS #13081
The dominant signal in this window is the massive divergence between Microsoft and Meta earnings, with Microsoft surging ~17% on Azure beat (43% growth, $100B annual run rate) while Meta drops ~9% on AI spending concerns. This is the single most market-moving event, directly impacting the AI trade narrative. The Iran war is escalating significantly: a drone strike on Egyptian port Damietta damaged two LNG tankers, marking the first attack on Egypt; the US launched heavy airstrikes on Iran; a Russian missile landed in Poland; and oil prices surged 7% with Brent above $90. However, oil is down 4% in this window, suggesting profit-taking or a counter-signal from Oman's Hormuz management proposal. The forced liquidation of Situational Awareness's AI portfolio by Citadel is a key counter-signal that may mark a bottom for AI stocks. US GDP slowed to 1.5% (miss), 30Y yield hit 5.2% (2007 high), and Fed dissent (3 hawks) raises September hike odds to 63%. Exelon slashed data center pipeline from 18GW to 11GW, signaling AI infrastructure pushback. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for Iran war, STABLE for Fed, and DE-ESCALATING for AI selloff (potential bottom).
Topics
Key developments
- Microsoft Azure growth accelerates to 43%, revenue surpasses $100B annual run rate, stock surges ~17%
- Meta Platforms drops ~9% as Q2 profit misses estimates, AI spending concerns persist
- Drone strike on Egyptian port Damietta damages two LNG tankers, Iran war expands to Egypt
- Citadel acquires Situational Awareness's AI stock portfolio, potentially marking bottom for AI trade
- US GDP slows to 1.5% in Q2, missing 2.3% estimate; 30Y Treasury yield hits 5.2%, highest since 2007
- Exelon slashes data center pipeline from 18GW to 11GW amid pushback against AI facilities
- Russian missile lands in Poland, NATO scrambles jets; Poland says missile was nuclear-capable Kh-101
- Brent crude surges 7% to above $90 then dips 4% as Oman proposes Hormuz management plan