WS #13120

The dominant AI-driven tech rally narrative is ESCALATING, with Amazon's blowout Q2 (revenue $200.6B, AWS +37%, capex raised to $220B) driving Nasdaq futures +1.15% and lifting the entire semiconductor complex (MRVL +5%, AMD +4% premarket). This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, CNBC, NYSE, GDELT). Apple remains the MAG7 carve-out, down ~8% premarket on weak guidance and memory-cost inflation, with GF Securities downgrade and Jefferies price target cut. The Fed counter-signal persists (9-3 hold, Kashkari/Hammack/Logan dissents favoring hikes), and US30Y nears 20-year high. Eurozone CPI rose to 2.9% (core 2.5%), pushing ECB September hike odds to 85%. BOJ intervened to defend yen near 160, holding rates at 1% (8-1 vote), with carry-trade unwind risk flagged. US-Iran conflict remains STABLE-to-ESCALATING: Iran struck US bases with drones, US/Israel considering land blockade of Iran, and oil (WTI +2% to $84.31, Brent ~$92) remains elevated. China's Q2 crude imports fell 32% QoQ, softening oil price effects. Hamas agreed to disarm as part of Trump's peace plan (counter-signal to conflict escalation).