WS #13121
No material new developments in the last 30 minutes. The dominant AI-driven tech rally narrative remains ESCALATING, with Amazon's blowout Q2 and semiconductor strength continuing to drive Nasdaq futures. Apple remains the MAG7 carve-out, down ~8% premarket on weak guidance and memory-cost inflation. The Fed counter-signal persists (9-3 hold, dissents favoring hikes), US30Y nears 20-year high, and Eurozone CPI rose to 2.9%, pushing ECB September hike odds to 85%. BOJ intervened to defend yen near 160, holding rates at 1%, with carry-trade unwind risk flagged. US-Iran conflict remains STABLE-to-ESCALATING, with oil elevated. China's Q2 crude imports fell 32% QoQ, softening oil price effects. Hamas agreed to disarm as part of Trump's peace plan (counter-signal to conflict escalation). No new data points have emerged to alter this picture.
Topics
Key developments
- Amazon Q2 blowout: AWS +37%, capex raised to $220B, stock +12% premarket
- Apple slides ~8% on weak guidance, memory-cost inflation; GF Securities downgrades, Jefferies cuts PT
- Fed holds rates 9-3, three dissents favor hikes; US30Y nears 20-year high
- Eurozone CPI rises to 2.9% (core 2.5%), ECB September hike odds at 85%
- BOJ intervenes to defend yen near 160, holds rates at 1%; US Treasury may intervene
- Iran strikes US bases, US/Israel consider land blockade; WTI +2% to $84.31, Brent ~$92
- Hamas agrees to disarm as part of Trump's peace plan, contingent on Israel withdrawal
- Michael Burry expands shorts against Nvidia and Micron, buys Lululemon and DraftKings