WS #13124

The dominant theme is a sharp bifurcation in the AI trade following mega-cap earnings. Microsoft (MSFT) surged ~15% on strong Azure growth (43%) and Copilot adoption, adding ~$450B in market cap, while Meta (META) fell ~8% on weak guidance and a 91% FCF plunge. Amazon (AMZN) gapped up ~12.5% on strong Q2 with AWS revenue +37% and capex raised to $220B, while Apple (AAPL) gapped down ~8.6% on weak guidance due to supply constraints, heading for a $460B wipeout. This divergence is corroborated across CNBC, Seeking Alpha, and multiple Bluesky posts. The Fed held rates but three dissenters favored a hike, with markets pricing >57% odds of a September hike; the 30Y yield hit a 2007 high, pressuring duration-sensitive tech. US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING: US struck dozens of IRGC targets overnight, Trump threatens continued attacks, and markets don't believe the ceasefire (Polymarket). Oil prices are elevated (WTI ~$85.7, Brent ~$90.3), with Saudi tankers rerouting around Africa. China PMIs fell below 50, and the US banned Chinese humanoid robots, prompting retaliation threats. Tesla (TSLA) is reportedly weighing sale of its China business to facilitate a SpaceX merger, a major strategic shift. Novo Nordisk (NVO) slumped on a Phase 3 trial failure. Other notable moves: Carvana (CVNA) fell on weak guidance, Stellantis (STLA) swung to profit but missed, and Corning (GLW) plunged despite strong results on AI rotation. The AI trade is bifurcating: MSFT and AMZN are rewarded, while META and AAPL are punished, and the broader market is fragile with SPX at 7,480 gamma flip.