WS #13177

The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant market driver, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and oil prices surging. Iran's IRGC claims it struck two tankers under US escort, and Kuwait's air defenses are actively intercepting Iranian drones/missiles, corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, Sky, APA). Brent crude is above $90, WTI near $86.80, with WTI net long positions at a four-month high. This is ESCALATING. A counter-signal emerges: Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire framework including disarmament, which could de-escalate regional tensions and pressure oil prices. However, Israel has not endorsed it, and Ben Gvir rejected it. Additionally, Exxon and Chevron reported massive profits ($14.5B and $12.1B respectively) on the oil spike, reinforcing energy sector strength. Meanwhile, the AI trade shows divergence: Amazon's strong cloud growth and Microsoft's cash generation support the AI rally, but Apple's stock tumbled 7%+ on weak forecast due to component shortages, and Amazon closed its AGI Lab, signaling AI infrastructure stress. The dollar weakened, and Treasury yields hit multi-year highs (10-year at 4.747%) on inflation fears from oil. The Fed is seen as 'hostage' to the war, holding rates steady. Russia's missile strike on Kyiv (9 killed) adds geopolitical risk but is secondary to the Middle East.