WS #13178

The dominant market narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices, which is ESCALATING. Oil prices settled more than 1% higher, with Brent at $90.12 and WTI at $84.67, logging their strongest month since March (Brent +24%, WTI +21% in July). The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with Iran's PGSA reiterating passage is not feasible and the US blocking a Qatari LNG tanker that used the Iranian-designated corridor. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, Moon of Alabama, GDELT). A counter-signal emerges: Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire framework including disarmament, but Israel has not endorsed it, and Ben Gvir rejected it. Additionally, US Fed dissenters are calling for rate hikes due to sustained inflation, with three policymakers dissenting at the last meeting, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit multi-year highs above 4.7%. The AI trade shows divergence: Apple's stock tumbled nearly 10% on weak forecast due to component shortages, erasing nearly $500 billion in market cap, while Microsoft's cloud growth supports the AI rally. Tesla faces a new NHTSA probe into suspension failures affecting 1.2 million vehicles. South Korea's July exports surged 62.8% on semiconductor boom, reinforcing AI infrastructure demand. The dollar weakened, and gold prices fell slightly in India. Russia's missile strike on Kyiv (9 killed) adds geopolitical risk but is secondary to the Middle East.