WS #13275

The dominant US-Iran/oil narrative is ESCALATING with a major new development: Trump announced cancellation of planned strikes on Iran, citing agreed 'perimeters of a deal' to open the Strait of Hormuz and end Iran's nuclear threat. This is corroborated by multiple sources (AP, GDELT, Al Jazeera, NZCity, and Bluesky posts). Iran simultaneously announced it is in 'final stages' of a maritime route deal with Oman through the Strait, which could hand Iran partial control and potential toll revenue. This de-escalation signal is a counter to the prevailing bearish oil thesis, likely to pressure crude prices (WTI, Brent) and energy stocks while boosting airlines and consumer discretionary. However, an LNG carrier (Gaslog Shanghai) was struck by Iran in the Strait, indicating ongoing risk. Separately, AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb are in merger talks for a $400B megadeal (FT, CNBC, Investing.com), a high-significance M&A event for healthcare. OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd output hike for September, adding to oil supply. The MAG7 narrative shows divergence: Amazon surged 15.3% on strong earnings, Microsoft soared on AI signals, while Apple sank; Tesla is down 29% YTD and considering divesting China operations (WSJ via Novinky). Fed rate cut expectations remain stalled, with Trump defending Fed chief Warsh. Carry-forward: the US-Iran de-escalation is the key positive to carry forward.