WS #13276

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran de-escalation, which is STABLE but with new details. Trump's cancellation of strikes on Iran is corroborated by multiple sources (AP, GDELT, Al Jazeera, NZCity, Bluesky), and Iran confirms talks with Oman on a new Hormuz route are in 'final stages' (GDELT, Al Jazeera, NZCity). This is a counter-signal to the bearish oil thesis, likely to pressure crude prices and energy stocks while boosting airlines and consumer discretionary. However, Iran's proposed toll on Hormuz transits (up to $1-2M per tanker) and the IRGC's condition of expelling US/Israeli diplomats for free passage introduce new friction, keeping some risk premium. OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd output hike for September, adding to supply. Separately, AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb are in merger talks for a $400B megadeal (FT, CNBC, Investing.com, Seeking Alpha, pro-wire), a high-significance M&A event for healthcare. The MAG7 narrative shows divergence: Microsoft beat Q4 with revenues up 18% (Telecompaper), Apple achieved record sales but sees slower growth ahead (Telecompaper), and Google pulled an AI feature in Google Earth after fake satellite images (Seeking Alpha). Tesla's FSD launch is mentioned in a Chainbase feed. Fed rate cut expectations remain stalled, with Trump defending Fed chief Warsh (Shafaqna). Carry-forward: the US-Iran de-escalation is the key positive to carry forward.