WS #13277

The dominant theme remains the fragile US-Iran de-escalation, which is STABLE but with critical new contradictions. Trump has halted strikes on Iran citing a draft deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran explicitly denies any agreement, stating the strait remains closed until US 'hostile actions' cease. This cross-source corroboration (AP, Al Jazeera, Tribune, GDELT, Spanish media) creates a high-signal, high-uncertainty situation for oil and risk assets. Saudi Crown Prince MBS urged Trump to prioritize dialogue, adding a diplomatic layer. OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd output hike for September, but analysts note the increase is largely theoretical due to Hormuz disruptions, limiting bearish oil impact. The AstraZeneca-Bristol Myers Squibb $400B merger talks continue to be corroborated (Bloomberg, Benzinga, GDELT), with market skepticism about value creation. In MAG7, Amazon's capex raise to $220B and 15.3% stock surge contrasts with Alphabet's capex raise that led to a selloff, highlighting divergent AI narratives. Apple faces MacBook Air shortages due to memory crunch, launching a leasing program to mitigate. The US 10-year yield jumped to 4.75% amid a bond market rout, signaling inflation and rate concerns. Ukraine drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and a Wildberries warehouse add geopolitical risk to energy markets.