WS #13314

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran de-escalation, but a critical counter-signal has emerged: Iran has rejected the US proposal on the Strait of Hormuz, stating it will remain closed until the conflict concludes, and has denied any talks with the US, contradicting Trump's claims. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, investingLive, GDELT), and while oil prices have plunged ~7% (Brent $83.62, WTI $78.95), the risk of a reversal is high. OPEC+ approved a 188k bpd increase for September, adding bearish pressure. The dollar remains weak after coordinated US-Japan intervention, with USD/JPY lower and the Indian Rupee surging on RBI intervention. In equities, Amazon hit $3 trillion market cap for the first time, with Jim Cramer issuing a 'buy' call and Wedbush raising its target to $310, driving a strong gap-up breakout; Alibaba surged 7% on its new AI model (Qwen3.8-Max), fueling China tech rotation. Bitcoin remains weak at ~$62,600, pressured by Strategy's continued BTC sales and the Coldcard hack, though BlackRock expanded tokenized cash products. Fed's Williams remains optimistic on inflation, but the market is watching for hawkish risks. The narrative is STABLE with a potential ESCALATION risk on Iran.