WS #13315

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran de-escalation, but a critical counter-signal has emerged: Iran has flatly denied any talks with the US, stating negotiations are exclusively with Oman on a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, and the strait remains closed until a final agreement. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, GDELT, Tribunnews, Press TV). Oil prices have plunged ~7% (Brent $83.62, WTI $78.95) on Trump's halt of Iran strikes, but the risk of a reversal is high given Iran's denial. OPEC+ approved a 188k bpd increase for September, adding bearish pressure. In equities, Amazon hit $3 trillion market cap for the first time, with Jim Cramer issuing a 'buy' call and Wedbush raising its target to $310, driving a strong gap-up breakout; Alibaba surged 7% on its new AI model (Qwen3.8-Max), fueling China tech rotation. Bitcoin remains weak at ~$62,600, pressured by Strategy's continued BTC sales and the Coldcard hack, though BlackRock expanded tokenized cash products. Fed's Williams remains optimistic on inflation, but the market is watching for hawkish risks. The narrative is STABLE with a potential ESCALATION risk on Iran.