WS #13330

The dominant market narrative is a sharp de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, with oil prices plunging over 7% (Brent to ~$83.4) after Trump canceled a planned strike and announced talks would resume. This is corroborated by multiple sources (oilprice.com, GDELT, CNBC, Al Jazeera) and is driving a broad risk-on rally in equities, with the S&P 500 up ~1.2% and Nasdaq up ~1.8%. However, a key counter-signal emerged: US officials told CBS that no new Iran negotiations are currently planned, and Iran refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, demanding control. This introduces uncertainty and could reverse the oil price drop and equity rally if talks fail. The de-escalation narrative is STABLE but fragile, with the potential for rapid escalation. Separately, Amazon (AMZN) crossed a $3 trillion market cap for the first time, up ~5% on strong Q2 results (AWS revenue +36.7%), making it the fifth company to achieve this milestone. This is a high-significance MAG7 positive that stands out against the broader tech rally. Boeing (BA) received FAA certification for the 737 MAX 7, a long-awaited catalyst that could boost the stock. The ISM manufacturing survey showed robust growth (55.6) but with inflation pressures (prices index 71.1) that could add to Fed rate hike pressure, a potential headwind for equities. The cyclospora outbreak in Michigan (2 deaths, 11,000 sickened) is a public health story with limited direct market impact, but could affect produce companies like Taylor Farms (private) and potentially Dole (DOLE) if implicated.