WS #13331

The dominant market narrative remains the de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, with oil prices plunging over 5% (Brent to ~$83.7, WTI to ~$79.5) after Trump canceled strikes and claimed a Hormuz deal is imminent. However, this narrative is fragile: US officials told CBS no new Iran negotiations are planned, and Iran denies talks, instead negotiating with Oman for a temporary shipping route. This counter-signal could reverse the oil drop and equity rally. The equity rally is broad, with the Dow up ~1.1% toward record highs, S&P 500 +1.2%, and Nasdaq 100 +1.8%, driven by falling oil and strong tech earnings. Amazon (AMZN) crossed $3 trillion market cap for the first time, up ~5% on strong Q2 results (AWS revenue +37%), making it the fifth company to achieve this milestone, and is now the best-performing Mag7 stock this year. Boeing (BA) received FAA certification for the 737 MAX 7, sending shares up 5%, a long-awaited catalyst. The ISM manufacturing survey showed robust growth (55.6) but with inflation pressures (prices index 71.1) that could add to Fed rate hike pressure, a potential headwind. Separately, a potential $400B AstraZeneca-Bristol Myers Squibb merger is being rejected by investors (AZN down 8%), and Russia opened an antitrust case against Apple (AAPL) over app preinstallation, with a potential fine of up to $50M.