WS #13384

The dominant theme is a potential de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stating on CNBC that an Iran deal to open Hormuz could come as soon as Tuesday/Wednesday, and that energy prices are expected to settle down. This is a high-significance counter-signal to the prevailing oil-supply-crisis narrative, and is corroborated by multiple sources (pro-wire, Bluesky priority feeds). If realized, this would be bearish for oil prices and bullish for equities, airlines, and consumer discretionary, while dampening the recent energy-sector rally. Separately, a heavy earnings day is producing notable single-stock moves: Caterpillar (CAT) surged ~6-9% premarket on a massive Q2 beat (adj. EPS $8.17 vs $6.17 est.) driven by data-center construction demand, with backlog up $34.6B YoY; McDonald's (MCD) rose ~2% on an EPS beat despite a U.S. same-store sales miss; and several other names (Energy Transfer, Pfizer, Cummins, DuPont, etc.) reported mixed results. In tech, OpenAI's founders/employees own 48.93% of the company per NYT DealBook, and the Apple-OpenAI lawsuit is escalating in public opinion, which could weigh on AAPL sentiment. Also, the Trump administration is reportedly drafting a ban on Chinese-made data center devices, which could impact tech supply chains. Overall, the market narrative is shifting from crisis to potential resolution, with earnings providing stock-specific catalysts.