WS #13385

The dominant theme remains the potential de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterating on CNBC that a deal with Iran could come within days, and Qatar announcing a drafted agreement to revive US-Iran talks. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bluesky priority feeds, Polymarket event listings) and is a high-significance counter-signal to the prevailing oil-supply-crisis narrative. Oil prices are extending losses, and the Dow is up 600 points on reports that Trump called off planned strikes on Iran. If realized, this would be bearish for oil and bullish for equities, airlines, and consumer discretionary, while dampening the energy rally. However, a counter-signal emerged: an unconfirmed report of an IRGC drone attack on a US base in Kuwait, which could reignite tensions and reverse the de-escalation narrative. This is a critical development to monitor. Separately, a heavy earnings day is producing notable single-stock moves: W.W. Grainger (GWW) beat and raised guidance, Sysco (SYY) beat and issued strong FY27 guidance, Centuri Holdings (CTRI) raised sales guidance, and IPG Photonics (IPGP) beat EPS but gave mixed Q3 guidance. In tech, Anthropic signed a $10 billion computing deal with Volta Infra, and Bitdeer (BTDR) announced a $4.7 billion AI data center lease, both signaling strong AI infrastructure demand. SpaceX is set to report its first post-IPO earnings after the bell, with expectations of a loss but strong Starlink revenue. The Fed's Paulson is keeping an 'open mind' on rates, and Japan's 2-year JGB yield hit a 30-year high, which could amplify yen volatility and trigger carry unwind spillover.