WS #13393

The dominant theme is a sharp de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with multiple high-signal sources (FT, Reuters, Al Arabiya, Bessent comments) converging on an imminent deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, possibly within 24-48 hours. This has driven Brent crude down ~4% to $80.66 and WTI down ~4.5% to $76.76, hitting three-week lows. The oil price collapse is a counter-signal to the prior war-risk premium, benefiting airlines, refiners, and consumer discretionary while pressuring energy producers. Simultaneously, US equities are at record highs (Dow +1.17%, S&P +0.7%, Nasdaq +2.13%) on strong earnings from Palantir (+23%) and Caterpillar, which are easing AI-capex concerns. However, a MAG7 carve-out emerges: Amazon (AMZN) is down >2% after Jeff Bezos filed to sell ~$4.1B of stock, and New Jersey filed an antitrust lawsuit against the company—both bearish signals contradicting the broader tech rally. AMD reports earnings tonight with options implying a 7.3% move, and SpaceX reports its first public earnings after close, with expected Q2 net loss of $1.9B and lockup expirations this week adding volatility. Other notable signals: SanDisk (SNDK) surged ~$17B in market cap on a new High-Bandwidth Flash standard with SK Hynix ahead of earnings, and the Trump administration is drafting an FCC ban on Chinese optical transceivers, lifting fiber-optic stocks. The narrative arc is ESCALATING toward resolution on the geopolitical front, but with new company-specific risks emerging.