WS #13394

The dominant theme remains the de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with Treasury Secretary Bessent signaling a possible Hormuz reopening deal 'today or tomorrow,' corroborated by Rubio, Qatar, and NYT reports of Iran-Oman proximity to an agreement. This has driven Brent to ~$80 and WTI to ~$76, but Brent's failure to break below $80 reveals lingering doubt. A cargo ship was struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, and reports that the US has used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles introduce a new military-readiness risk that could complicate the deal narrative. US equities are at record highs (Dow +1.05%, S&P +0.71%, Nasdaq +1.32%) on strong earnings from Palantir (+23%, revenue +93%, raised guidance) and Caterpillar (+11%, record $20.5B quarter), easing AI-capex concerns. The MAG7 carve-out persists: Amazon (AMZN) faces a New Jersey antitrust lawsuit and a $349M dark pool sell order, contradicting the broader tech rally. AMD reports earnings tonight with aggressive short-dated call sweeps ($585 calls, $1.5M premium) implying high conviction on the print. SpaceX reports its first public earnings after close, with expected Q2 net loss of $1.9B and 911M shares unlocking Thursday, adding volatility. SanDisk (SNDK) continues to surge (+7.7%, +$17B market cap) on the High-Bandwidth Flash standard with SK Hynix, lifting memory stocks (MU +5.5%, INTC +6.7%). The narrative arc is ESCALATING toward resolution on the geopolitical front, but with new company-specific risks and a potential military-readiness counter-signal emerging.