WS #13417

A dense earnings window has produced a cluster of high-signal results, led by AMD's record Q2 (revenue $11.54B, +50% YoY, Data Center revenue more than doubled, Q3 guide above consensus) and SpaceX's first public earnings (revenue $7.81B, +92% YoY, Starlink $4.29B, AI $2.56B, backlog $47.5B, $100B cash). These corroborate the prevailing AI-infrastructure bull narrative, with Arista Networks (+13% on Q2 beat and raised outlook), Astera Labs (Q3 guide far above estimates), and semiconductor strength (SOXX +16.8% in four days) reinforcing the theme. The macro backdrop is risk-on: Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs, Nasdaq posted best four-day run in over a year, and oil fell below $80, with the US-Iran Hormuz situation de-escalating (Polymarket shows ceasefire and traffic-normalization bets). Counter-signals include Lucid's deep Q2 miss and $1.4B 'operational reset' (bearish EV/LCID), Match Group's weak Q3 revenue forecast (bearish MTCH), and Pinterest's lukewarm guidance despite a beat (bearish PINS). IFF's massive guidance cut (FY26 sales lowered ~30%) is a notable negative. Overall, the dominant theme is AI-infrastructure strength, which is ESCALATING, while the Hormuz risk premium is DE-ESCALATING.