WS #13418

The dominant theme remains AI-infrastructure strength, which is ESCALATING, but with a notable divergence: AMD delivered a record Q2 (revenue $11.54B, +50% YoY, Data Center more than doubled, Q3 guide above consensus) yet shares fell ~5% in after-hours on sell-the-news, while SpaceX's first public earnings beat (revenue $7.81B, +92% YoY, Starlink $4.29B, AI $2.56B, backlog $47.5B) saw shares drop ~6% on a $15.8B AI capital spending surge that exceeded expectations. This AI capex concern is a counter-signal to the prevailing bull narrative, suggesting investors are now scrutinizing AI spending intensity. Meanwhile, the macro backdrop is strongly risk-on: Dow +900 points, S&P 500 +2% to record high, Nasdaq best four-day run in over a year, driven by Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments that a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come today or tomorrow, sending oil below $80 (Brent settled $79.36). This Hormuz de-escalation is DE-ESCALATING further, with Polymarket showing ceasefire and traffic-normalization bets. Corporate profitability is strong (S&P net margins +14.7% ex-AMZN/GOOG), and PLTR surged +29.4% to $162.66, its second-biggest daily gain ever, reinforcing AI sentiment.