WS #13419

The dominant theme remains AI-infrastructure strength, but it is now showing clear signs of ESCALATING investor scrutiny on AI capital spending intensity. AMD delivered a record Q2 (revenue $11.54B, +50% YoY, Data Center +107% to $6.7B, Q3 guide ~$13B above consensus) yet shares fell ~5-8% in after-hours on sell-the-news, with analysts flagging margin pressure from heavier Instinct mix and tight HBM4 supply. SpaceX's first public earnings beat (revenue $7.8B, +92% YoY, Starlink $4.29B, AI $2.56B, backlog $47.5B) saw shares drop ~6-8% on a $15.8B AI capital spending surge that exceeded expectations, and a $540M loss on bitcoin holdings. This AI capex concern is a counter-signal to the prevailing bull narrative, suggesting investors are now scrutinizing AI spending intensity. Meanwhile, the macro backdrop is strongly risk-on: Dow +900 points, S&P 500 +2% to record high, Nasdaq best four-day run in over a year, driven by Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments that a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come today or tomorrow, sending oil below $80 (Brent settled $79.36, WTI $75.77). This Hormuz de-escalation is DE-ESCALATING further, with Polymarket showing ceasefire and traffic-normalization bets. Corporate profitability is strong (S&P net margins +14.7% ex-AMZN/GOOG), and PLTR surged +29.4% to $162.66, its second-biggest daily gain ever, reinforcing AI sentiment.