WS #13421

The dominant theme is a sharp equity rally to record highs, driven by falling oil prices on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz reopening and strong earnings, but this is being met with notable skepticism from high-profile bears and a 'sell-the-news' reaction in key AI names. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high (+1.9%) and the Nasdaq surged 2.6-2.7%, with oil prices plunging over 6% (WTI to $75.77, Brent to $79.36) on potential Iran deal optimism. However, Michael Burry publicly warned of a '1987-type fall,' citing AI infrastructure financing concerns, while AMD and SpaceX both beat earnings estimates but saw their stocks drop 8-10% in after-hours trading, highlighting a pattern of profit-taking on AI-related names despite strong fundamentals. SpaceX's announcement that it will build exclusively on Nvidia GPUs is a major positive catalyst for NVDA, contradicting the broader AI selloff narrative. Additionally, Texas Governor Abbott halted new data center grid connections pending audits, a potential headwind for the AI infrastructure buildout. The AI-capex scrutiny narrative is ESCALATING, with the Burry warning and Texas moratorium adding to concerns, while the Hormuz de-escalation narrative is STABLE with oil prices reflecting optimism. Other notable signals include Argentina's grain export halt due to a maritime pilots strike, which could impact agricultural commodity prices, and a US court blocking the Trump administration's attempt to cancel $20B in climate grants, a positive for clean energy.