WS #13422

The dominant theme remains the record equity rally driven by falling oil prices on Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes, but the AI-capex scrutiny narrative is intensifying with SpaceX's debut earnings showing surging AI costs and insider selling, while AMD's strong results were overshadowed by a capex surge and sell-the-news reaction. The Hormuz de-escalation narrative is STABLE with Bessent signaling a deal could come 'today or tomorrow' and Qatar confirming progress, keeping oil prices down (WTI ~$75.7, Brent ~$78.8). SpaceX's Q2 revenue rose 92% to $7.8B but the stock dropped up to 8% on AI costs and insider selling plans; however, Musk's commitment to build exclusively on Nvidia GPUs and expectations of receiving a 'significant percentage' of Nvidia GPUs next year is a major positive catalyst for NVDA, contradicting the broader AI selloff. AMD beat with record $11.5B revenue and raised Q3 guidance, but shares fell on capex surging to $808M (vs $298.6M est) and free cash flow margin decline, reinforcing the AI-capex scrutiny theme. Other notable signals: Bezos selling ~$4.1B of AMZN shares (pre-arranged plan), Chipotle pulling jalapeños over salmonella outbreak (shares down ~7-8.5%), and a US appeals court ruling that EPA cannot block $20B in climate grants (positive for clean energy).