WS #13433

The dominant theme is the escalating optimism over a potential US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has driven a broad risk-on rally. Multiple sources (Bloomberg, AP, Reuters, GDELT, and various international outlets) corroborate that Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal could come 'today or tomorrow,' and Secretary of State Rubio confirmed 'progress' in talks. This has sent oil prices down over 5% (Brent below $80, WTI around $75), lifting US stocks to record highs (S&P 500 +1.79%, Dow +1.71%, Nasdaq +2.59%). However, there is a counter-signal: Iran's foreign ministry denies negotiations with the US, and a senior Iranian official rejected Trump's claims, creating uncertainty about the deal's completion. This is a high-significance development that could reverse the rally if talks collapse. Additionally, SpaceX reported its first earnings as a public company, beating revenue expectations ($7.8B vs $6.8B) but posting a $541M loss and disclosing $18.4B in capex, causing shares to fall ~6-8% after hours. The AI trade remains strong, with Palantir surging 29.5% on earnings, and chip stocks (AMD, Intel, Micron, etc.) rallying. Jeff Bezos filed to sell $4.1B of Amazon shares, a notable insider sale that pressured AMZN. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for Hormuz deal hopes, but with a counter-signal from Iran's denial.