WS #13434

The dominant theme remains the escalating optimism over a potential US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, Reuters via bsky) corroborating that Tehran-Oman talks are 'positive' and that a deal could be announced soon. This has driven oil prices down further (Brent -1% to $78.49, WTI -1% to $74.66) and lifted global equities (Nikkei +2%, Eurostoxx futures +0.3%, DAX +0.5%). However, a counter-signal persists: Iran's foreign ministry denies negotiations, and a senior Iranian official rejected Trump's claims, creating uncertainty. Additionally, Fed's Schmid delivered a hawkish surprise, stating that inflation is 'too high' and 'worrisome', that AI investment is driving up inflation, and that tighter monetary policy is needed to get inflation back to 2%. This is a significant hawkish signal that could pressure high-multiple tech stocks and support the dollar. In corporate news, AMD shares slid after SpaceX committed to rival Nvidia, indicating a competitive threat to AMD's AI chip business. Also, Pinterest raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin view to ~30%, a positive signal for the stock. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for Hormuz deal hopes, but with a hawkish Fed counter-signal emerging.