WS #13458

Markets are at record highs driven by optimism over a potential Strait of Hormuz deal, with Treasury Secretary Bessent suggesting a deal could come 'today or tomorrow' and Iran/Oman finalizing a draft agreement. This has pressured oil prices (Brent ~$80, WTI ~$75.9) and supported risk assets. However, a Houthi drone boat sank a Saudi-linked vessel near Bab Al-Mandab, and Israel struck Lebanon over a ceasefire violation, adding geopolitical risk that could reverse the oil decline. In earnings, SpaceX reported a revenue beat but massive AI capex ($16B quarterly, persisting), sending shares down ~10-12%; AMD's data center revenue doubled to $6.7B but stock fell ~9% on margin/cost concerns; Disney beat on parks/streaming; Eli Lilly raised guidance on GLP-1 demand; Amgen beat and raised guidance. Macro data was mixed: ADP jobs miss (44k vs 68k est) and ISM Services PMI at 54.1 (below 54.5 est) with employment contracting, reinforcing Fed patience, but Fed's Kashkari voted for a hike and said 'now is the time' to move up, creating a hawkish counter-signal. The Situational Awareness hedge fund meltdown is being cited by BofA CEO as a warning shot for leveraged markets. Michigan primary results (El-Sayed wins Senate, McKinney unseats Thanedar) are political but not directly market-moving. Overall, the dominant theme is Hormuz deal optimism (STABLE/ESCALATING toward resolution) with oil and rates as key swing factors.