WS #13459

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz deal optimism, which is now ESCALATING toward resolution with multiple high-level confirmations. AP reports that Iranian and Omani negotiators have finalized a draft agreement to reopen the Strait, awaiting final sign-off from Iran's supreme leader, while Trump says a deal could come 'today or tomorrow' and Bessent echoes the same timeline. This is corroborated by multiple sources (AP, Axios, Guardian, Al Jazeera, GDELT). However, a counter-signal has emerged: Houthi rebels struck and sank a Saudi-linked vessel near Bab Al-Mandab, and Israel struck Lebanon over a ceasefire violation, adding geopolitical risk that could reverse the oil decline. Oil prices have bounced off lows (Brent ~$80, WTI ~$76) after the Houthi attack, but the deal optimism caps upside. The US Treasury website shows removal of Iran-related sanctions (OFAC delisting of Fly Baghdad), which is a concrete step toward de-escalation. In earnings, SpaceX reported a revenue beat but massive AI capex ($16B quarterly, persisting), sending shares down ~10-12%; AMD's data center revenue doubled to $6.7B but stock fell ~9% on margin/cost concerns; Disney beat on parks/streaming; Eli Lilly raised guidance on GLP-1 demand; Amgen beat and raised guidance. Macro data was mixed: ADP jobs miss (44k vs 68k est) and ISM Services PMI at 54.1 (below 54.5 est) with employment contracting, reinforcing Fed patience, but Fed's Kashkari voted for a hike and said 'now is the time' to move up, creating a hawkish counter-signal. The Situational Awareness hedge fund meltdown is being cited by BofA CEO as a warning shot for leveraged markets. Michigan primary results (El-Sayed wins Senate, McKinney unseats Thanedar) are political but not directly market-moving. Overall, the dominant theme is Hormuz deal optimism (STABLE/ESCALATING toward resolution) with oil and rates as key swing factors.