WS #13503

The dominant market theme is the escalating prospect of a Strait of Hormuz reopening deal between Iran and Oman, now corroborated by multiple sources (AP, CNN, Al Jazeera, The National, and various international outlets). Iran's foreign ministry confirmed talks are in final stages, with a draft agreement awaiting approval from Iran's Supreme Leader, and a senior Gulf official citing a '50-50' chance of a deal by Friday. This is a DE-ESCALATING geopolitical narrative that directly pressures oil prices lower, with Brent falling below $80 intraday before rebounding to ~$80.54 after a Houthi attack on a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea. The counter-signal is the Houthi strike, which reintroduces supply risk and keeps oil volatile. Concurrently, a major tech selloff is underway: SpaceX fell ~13% after reporting heavy AI capex and a $16B AI spend, dragging AMD (-7%), GOOGL (-4%), and other AI names; Nvidia rallied 3%+ after Musk said SpaceX will use Nvidia exclusively for AI infrastructure. Earnings season is driving significant single-stock moves: HubSpot dropped 20% on weak guidance despite a beat, Uber fell 5% on weak Q3 guidance, Fluence Energy plunged 27% on a big miss, while McKesson, MercadoLibre, and Qualys surged on strong results. The US government refunded ~$100B of tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, a fiscal headwind that could dampen the 'tariffs are incredible' narrative. Overall, the market is mixed: Dow at record, Nasdaq down 0.8%, with rotation out of tech into value.