WS #13504

The dominant theme remains the escalating prospect of a Strait of Hormuz reopening deal, now with concrete new details: Iran and Oman have agreed on geographic coordinates for new shipping routes, with Iran demanding a 7% transit fee (Chinese/Russian vessels exempt) while Oman seeks ~3% and the US wants none. Trump stated a deal could come 'tomorrow or the next day' (Wednesday/Thursday), and a 60-day temporary mechanism is under discussion. This is a DE-ESCALATING geopolitical narrative that continues to pressure oil prices lower—WTI closed near $75, lowest in a month, and Brent ~$79-80. The counter-signal is the Houthi attack on a Saudi tanker and Israel's strikes on southern Lebanon, which reintroduce supply risk and keep oil volatile. The US government has refunded ~$100B of the $166B in tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court (over half), a fiscal headwind that undermines the 'tariffs are incredible' narrative. In tech, the AI selloff persists: SpaceX fell ~13% on heavy AI capex ($16-18.4B), dragging AMD (-7%), GOOGL (-4%), and others; Nvidia rallied 3%+ after Musk said SpaceX will use Nvidia exclusively for AI infrastructure. Alphabet also announced major AI leadership changes—Demis Hassabis stepping back and Jeff Dean leaving to found Discovery Loop—contributing to GOOGL's decline. Earnings season continues to drive single-stock moves: HubSpot dropped 20% on weak guidance, Bumble missed badly (-$1.09 EPS miss), Opendoor fell 8.7%, while Qualys surged 13.8%, Avnet beat big, and Disney rose on strong results. Overall market: S&P 500 and Dow at record highs, Nasdaq down 0.8%, with rotation out of tech into value.