WS #13514

The dominant market narrative this cycle is the escalating progress toward a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple sources (Reuters, AP, CNN, Al Jazeera, and various regional outlets) corroborating that Iran and Oman are in the 'final stage' of drafting an agreement. This is a high-significance geopolitical development that is directly pressuring oil prices (Brent down to ~$79, WTI ~$74.7) and driving gold to a seven-week high above $4,290 as rate-hike expectations ease. The proposed deal reportedly gives Iran control over inbound traffic, a major concession that could reshape regional power dynamics, but it remains contingent on the US lifting its naval blockade—a point of contention. This is an ESCALATING narrative with clear market implications: oil bearish, gold bullish, and a potential tailwind for equities if a deal is finalized. Separately, the AI trade is showing signs of bifurcation: while the Nasdaq rallied $3.5 trillion over four days, Asian chip stocks (Kospi -4.4%, Nikkei -2%) are selling off on profit-taking and risk reduction ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls. SpaceX's $101 billion lockup expiry today is a major overhang on its stock (SPCX), which has already fallen from $225 to $125 post-IPO. In earnings, Palantir surged 30% on a beat, while SolarEdge plunged 30% on weak guidance, and Sandisk's strong AI-driven forecast was overshadowed by profit-taking. The Fed's Lisa Cook signaled readiness to hike if inflation persists, adding a hawkish counterweight to the gold rally.