WS #13515

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran/Oman deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is now in its final stages with multiple sources (Reuters, Al Jazeera, i24NEWS, and various regional outlets) corroborating that Iran and Oman have agreed on shipping route coordinates and are preparing a joint statement. This is an ESCALATING narrative with direct market implications: oil prices are under pressure (Brent ~$79.2, WTI ~$74.9, Azeri Light below $92), gold is above $4,300, and shipping associations are warning against tolls. However, a counter-signal has emerged: a tanker reported hearing two explosions in the Strait of Hormuz near Oman, and Houthis claimed a ballistic missile strike on a Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden, indicating continued maritime risk despite the diplomatic progress. Additionally, Iran's deputy foreign minister stated the US has formally requested a return to the Islamabad MOU, signaling US readiness to resume commitments, but Iran insists it is not negotiating with the US directly. The AI trade is bifurcating: Asian chip stocks (Kospi -4.5%, Nikkei -1.6%) are selling off on profit-taking, while US tech shows resilience. SpaceX's lockup expiry is a major overhang, with 140% of float unlocking today. In earnings, SoftBank beat on chip bets, while FUJIFILM missed. The Fed's Lisa Cook signaled readiness to hike, adding a hawkish counterweight to the gold rally.