WS #13543

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is ESCALATING with new specifics: Iran is drafting a strategic plan to restrict transit for US, Israeli, and hostile vessels, with fines up to 20% of cargo value and potential seizures, while the proposed Iran-Oman deal (5-7% fees) is deemed largely unworkable by shipping sources due to sanctions and insurance risks. Oil prices are surging (WTI +3.5% to ~$77.8, Brent +4% to ~$82.6), and Saudi Arabia cut its Arab Light price for Asia, signaling continued supply concerns. The US is reportedly running low on precision missiles, with Trump denying shortages and threatening leakers, while Hegseth's position appears secure. This is a counter-signal to any de-escalation narrative: the US military constraint could paradoxically increase the risk of a negotiated settlement but also raises uncertainty. In corporate news, several high-profile earnings surprises are moving stocks: Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) plunged ~19-21% on gloomy guidance, AppLovin (APP) fell ~19.6% on mixed results, Datadog (DDOG) dropped ~16-18% despite a beat-and-raise, while Axon (AXON) surged on strong AI-driven results (revenue +35%, ARR +39%, raised guidance). SpaceX (SPCX) reported first earnings with revenue +92% but heavy capex, sending shares down 8% after hours, with a major lockup expiry of 900M+ shares today. The Fed narrative is shifting: Warsh is ditching forward guidance, dollar hedging costs jumped, and there's a 54% chance of a rate hike in September per futures. Fed Governor Cook voted against hiking but is ready to act if inflation persists. This hawkish tilt is a macro headwind for growth stocks.