WS #13544

The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains the dominant macro theme, now ESCALATING with a new twist: Iran claims a deal with Oman on transit coordinates, but shipping sources call the proposed 5-7% cargo fee plan largely unworkable due to US sanctions and war-risk insurance voiding (Lloyd's Market Association clause). Oil prices are surging (WTI +3.5% to ~$77.8, Brent +4% to ~$82.6), and Saudi Arabia deepened its Asia oil discount, signaling supply concerns. The US munitions shortage narrative is confirmed by Washington Post reporting that Trump clashed with Hegseth at Camp David over depleted stockpiles, which reportedly derailed a planned major attack on Iran; Trump denies shortages and threatens leakers, while backing Hegseth. This is a counter-signal to de-escalation: US military constraints could paradoxically increase the risk of a negotiated settlement but also raise uncertainty. In corporate news, several high-profile earnings surprises are moving stocks: Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) plunged ~19-21% on gloomy guidance, AppLovin (APP) fell ~19.6% on mixed results and multiple analyst downgrades (Piper Sandler to Neutral, PT cut to $385), Datadog (DDOG) dropped ~16-18% despite a beat-and-raise, while Axon (AXON) surged on strong AI-driven results (revenue +35%, ARR +39%, raised guidance). SpaceX (SPCX) reported first earnings with revenue +92% but heavy capex, sending shares down 8% after hours, with a major lockup expiry of 900M+ shares today. The Fed narrative is shifting: Warsh is ditching forward guidance, dollar hedging costs jumped, and there's a 54% chance of a rate hike in September per futures. Fed Governor Cook voted against hiking but is ready to act if inflation persists. This hawkish tilt is a macro headwind for growth stocks.