WS #13545

From 500 msgs · 10 key-dev

No material new developments in the last 30 minutes. The dominant Strait of Hormuz crisis narrative remains unchanged, with no new data points on Iran/Oman transit talks, oil price moves, or US munitions shortages. Corporate earnings surprises (HONA, APP, DDOG, AXON, SPCX) are unchanged from prior coverage. No counter-signals or de-escalation signals detected. The situation is STABLE with no new actionable information.

Topics

Key developments

  • Iran-Oman Hormuz transit deal seen unworkable; oil surges ~4%
  • Trump-Hegseth clash over munitions shortages derails Iran attack plans
  • Fed Chair Warsh reportedly prepared to support September rate hike
  • AppLovin plunges ~20% on mixed results and downgrades
  • SanDisk and Western Digital fall 15-17% on weak guidance despite beats
  • Axon surges on strong AI-driven results and raised guidance
  • SpaceX drops 8% after hours on heavy capex and lockup expiry
  • Ukraine strikes two Russian refineries, escalating energy supply risk