WS #13546

The dominant market-moving theme in this window is the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is ESCALATING. Iran published a restrictive draft plan for managing the strait, banning US and Israeli ships, imposing penalties of 20% of cargo value, and seeking a 5-7% service fee on vessels. This directly contradicts prior US administration claims of a near-term deal and has caused Brent to jump ~4% to $82.72 and WTI ~3.5% to $77.83. The US official statement that temporary routes will be 'without any impediments' is a counter-signal, but the restrictive Iranian draft and the tanker explosion report off Oman suggest the situation is deteriorating, not resolving. This is a high-significance development with broad market impact: bullish for energy (XOM, CVX, PSX, MPC), bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL, AAL) and consumer discretionary, and supportive of gold (GLD, NEM) as a safe haven. Additionally, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly open to a September rate hike, which is a hawkish signal that could pressure growth stocks and support the dollar. Corporate earnings continue to drive single-stock moves: DoorDash (DASH) beat with strong Q2 and raised guidance, Magnite (MGNI) soared 17% on raised outlook, HubSpot (HUBS) dropped 21% on weak guidance, and software stocks are broadly lower on weak guidance from HubSpot, Datadog, and AppLovin. The OpenAI-Apple trade secrets lawsuit is a notable legal development but has limited near-term market impact. Overall, the market is facing a geopolitical risk-off impulse with oil spiking, while the Fed's hawkish stance adds to uncertainty.