WS #13547

The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains the dominant market theme, ESCALATING. Iran's parliament is reviewing a draft bill to ban US, Israeli and other 'hostile' vessels from the strait, with fines up to 20% of cargo value, while reports indicate Iran seeks a 5-7% transit fee (Oman proposes 3%). This directly contradicts US claims of a near-term deal and has pushed Brent to ~$81-82.72 and WTI to ~$77.83, pressuring US equities (Dow -0.6%, S&P -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.1%). However, a counter-signal emerged: Iran's foreign ministry says negotiations with Oman are in 'final phase' and an agreement could be announced soon, with the US official stating temporary routes will be 'without any impediments.' This mixed picture keeps oil elevated but caps further spikes. The US munitions shortage story is gaining traction: reports say the US has used 'virtually all' long-range missiles and interceptors, forcing Trump to scale back strikes on Iran and deny Ukraine Patriot missiles, with Trump clashing with Hegseth. This is a high-significance development that could limit US military escalation, potentially de-escalating the conflict and easing oil prices. Fed Chair Warsh's openness to a September rate hike remains a hawkish overhang. Corporate earnings continue to drive single-stock moves: Fox (FOXA) beat on World Cup ad boost (+5%), easyJet agreed to a £5.7B Apollo takeover, Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) profit plunged 91% on weak film slate, Commerce.com (CMRC) slid 34% on slashed guidance, and software stocks remain weak on HubSpot/Datadog/AppLovin guidance. Gold surged above $4,200 after weak ADP jobs data (44k vs 68k expected), supporting gold miners (NEM, GLD).