WS #13552

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but this window shows a critical ESCALATION in the form of an Iranian parliamentary bill to ban US/Israeli-linked vessels from the strait, which directly counters the earlier Iran-Oman deal optimism. Oil prices are surging (Brent +3.8% to $82.47, WTI +2.7% to $77.24) on reports of attacks on Saudi tankers and the Iranian bill, while the dollar is having its best day in two weeks. This is a counter-signal to the de-escalation narrative: the Iran-Oman route agreement is only a framework, and Iran demands US sanctions relief and blockade lifting before reopening, so the bearish oil thesis is reinforced. Separately, a major memory/DRAM shortage story is emerging with high cross-source corroboration: Apple has ~$1B of A20 Pro wafers stranded at TSMC awaiting DRAM, Tim Cook warned of a '100-year flood' in memory prices, and Micron has sold out capacity through 2027. This is bullish for memory makers (MU, WDC, SNDK) and bearish for Apple's margins and iPhone 18 supply. Also notable: China launched a cybersecurity review into Palo Alto Networks (PANW), a negative for the stock. The SpaceX lockup expiry (911.5M shares) is a known overhang but not new. Overall, the market is mixed with Dow down 0.7% on chip weakness, while energy and oil-related names outperform.