WS #13560

The dominant macro theme remains the Strait of Hormuz conflict, which is STABLE-to-DE-ESCALATING. Trump stated he thinks the war will end 'pretty soon' and that the US has 'unlimited' munitions supply, countering earlier shortage fears. Polymarket shows active trading on 'US announces end of Iranian blockade' and 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9', indicating market participants are pricing de-escalation. This dampens the bullish energy thesis (XOM, CVX) and bearish airlines (DAL, UAL) that prevailed earlier. Separately, a heavy earnings batch is moving individual names: Atlassian surged 23% on a massive beat, Twilio raised guidance, Cloudflare popped 15%, while The Trade Desk cratered on a revenue miss and weak guidance, and Datadog fell 19% (carried forward). Marathon Digital and CleanSpark missed badly on Bitcoin mining headwinds. Amazon took a new stake in X-Energy, signaling nuclear energy interest. Trump signed an executive order curbing birthright citizenship, a political story with limited direct market impact. The FDA approved a new melanoma therapy, a positive for biotech. Overall, the market is digesting a potential de-escalation in the Middle East alongside a mixed earnings season.