WS #13579

The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains the dominant market theme, with the narrative ESCALATING. Iran's restrictive draft plan—banning US/Israeli ships and imposing fines up to 20% of cargo value—is corroborated by multiple sources (CNBC, GDELT, Bloomberg via bsky), driving oil prices up: Brent +3.83% to $82.49, WTI +2.75% to $77.29, with futures extending gains (Brent $83.50, WTI $78.15). This directly counters the prior optimism over a US-Iran-Oman deal, though Trump's comments that a deal could come 'soon' and that the war will end 'pretty soon' provide a counter-signal that could reverse oil if realized. The Houthi attack on Saudi territory and strikes on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea add to supply disruption fears, while Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries (Yaroslavl and Novoil) further tighten refined product markets. The macro read-through is bearish for equities: Dow -0.85%, S&P -0.18%, with Treasury yields rising (10Y at 4.681%) and gold slipping despite touching $4,300 intraday. The US jobs report due Friday is the next key catalyst, with expectations of 88k jobs added. In corporate news, major single-name moves include: The Trade Desk (TTD) cratering ~25% on weak Q3 guidance, AppLovin (APP) -16% on revenue miss, Sandisk (SNDK) -9% and Western Digital (WDC) -15% on earnings, Honeywell Aerospace (HON) -21.2% on poor results, and Atlassian (TEAM) +30% on strong cloud growth. Meta (META) faces a $942M court order in New Mexico, and Alphabet (GOOGL) is issuing $25B in bonds with strong demand. Trump's 15% polysilicon tariff with price floors (effective Dec 4) is bullish for US solar/polysilicon names like First Solar (FSLR) but bearish for Chinese imports. The yen intervention is fading (yen surrendered half its gains), raising odds of another intervention, with the US selling euros to prop up the yen, blindsiding the ECB.