WS #13580

The dominant market theme remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is ESCALATING. Iran's parliament is reviewing a draft bill to ban US/Israeli ships and impose fines up to 20% of cargo value, with fees of 5-7% for others, while Oman seeks ~3% and the US pushes for no fees. This is corroborated by multiple sources (NPR, Reuters via GDELT, ANTARA, Kompas, VOV) and has driven Brent +3.8% to $82.49 and WTI +2.75% to $77.29, with futures extending gains (Brent $83.48, WTI $78.84). Trump's comments that a deal could come 'soon' and the war will end 'pretty soon' provide a counter-signal, but Iran's chief negotiator dismissed this as 'theater diplomacy,' and Saudi Arabia is bracing for 'multiple coordinated attacks' from Iraqi militias and Houthis, with Houthi strikes on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden adding to supply disruption fears. The macro read-through is bearish for equities (Dow -0.85%, S&P -0.18%), with Treasury yields rising (10Y at 4.681%) and gold slipping despite touching $4,300 intraday. The US jobs report due Friday is the next key catalyst, with expectations of 88k jobs added. In corporate news, major single-name moves include: Meta (META) ordered to pay $567M by a New Mexico judge (corroborated by Al Jazeera, NYT, AD, pro-wire), adding to its $375M jury award; Uber shares retreat on weak outlook despite Q2 beat; Shopify surges on strong Q2; SpaceX shares rise 2.5% as lockup expires; and several earnings beats/misses (Airbnb, ResMed, Microchip, etc.). The yen intervention is fading (yen surrendered half its gains), raising odds of another intervention, with the US selling euros to prop up the yen, blindsiding the ECB.